Trafalgar Poll: California Recall a Near Toss-up in Final Days

With voting in the California recall closing Tuesday night, the possibility of Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, being recalled was nearly a toss-up, winding up just outside the margin of error, according to the latest Trafalgar Group poll.

The poll found just 53% of likely California recall election voters support voting not to recall Newsom, while nearly 45% say he should be recalled in the state.

Voting ends Tuesday in the race that could oust the first-term governor, and it is being watched ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, when control of Congress and more than half of governorships are in play.

It should be noted the Trafalgar Group replicated California's near 25% representation of Republican likely voters, heavily weighting its poll in favor of Democrats to reflect the state's true leanings in elections.

The poll representation:

• Democrat: 48.1%.
• No party or independent: 26.2%.
• Republican 25.7%.

With that representation, some might see it as surprising that GOP candidate Larry Elder is the overwhelming favorite when asked which candidate would they "likely support to replace" Newsom.

Notably GOP candidate Caitlyn Jenner was a distant ninth, according to the poll:

1. Elder: 41%.
2. Kevin Paffrath: 9.5%.
3. Kevin Faulconer: 3.8%.
4. Kevin Kiley: 3.6%.
5. Jacqueline McGowan: 3.6%.
6. John Cox: 2.7%.
7. Brandon Ross: 1.3%.
8. John Drake: 1.2%.
9. Caitlyn Jenner: 0.9%.

There were 22.9% undecided, while 9.4% supported another candidate.

The Trafalgar Group polled 1,083 likely recall election voters Sept. 11-13. The poll results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.98 percentage points.

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