The man known as the "world's most accurate economist" has predicted that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will win the Nov. 5 presidential election, and that the GOP will take full control of Congress.
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Christophe Barraud, the chief economist at Market Securities Monaco, has been named by Bloomberg as the top forecaster for 11 of the last 12 years.
Barraud posted on X, "Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers' forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep." Barraud said while a GOP takeover of the House may be trickier, it appears, at the moment, that they will prevail.
Barraud said a Trump win with Republican control of Congress could boost the GDP by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, as Trump would likely be able to implement tax cuts for corporations and focus on his domestic agenda. But Barraud warns that such tax cuts, without corresponding funds, could tick up the national deficit.
In a scenario where Trump wins but Congress remains divided, Barraud suggests Trump, with his economic agenda stalled, might pivot to tariffs, which Barraud said might slow down the U.S. economy in the long run.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins and Congress remains divided, Barraud said to expect the status quo because things won't likely change much.
Barraud did say that no matter who wins, the economy would likely see gains in the short term.
Kate McManus ✉
Kate McManus is a New Jersey-based Newsmax writer who's spent more than two decades as a journalist.
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