Democrats are seeing favorable conditions in three Republican strongholds that could buoy their chances of winning back the Senate in November, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
Conventional wisdom is that because they're defending three times as many seats as Republicans in November — 10 of those in states carried by President Donald Trump in 2016 — Democrats don't have much of a chance to take back the majority in the Senate.
However, a poll in Tennessee, the machinations in Arizona, and the fundraising prowess of an upstart Democrat in Texas could be signs of blue victories in those red strongholds, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
In Tennessee, one poll shows former Gov. Phil Bredesen up on conservative Rep. Marsha Blackburn by 10 points.
While Blackburn's star is on the rise in Congress, she's not an incumbent; the seat is open due to Sen. Bob Corker's retirement. That combined with Trump's lukewarm approval ratings in Tennessee don't make Blackburn the slam dunk people might think, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
In Texas, Beto O'Rourke's fundraising haul is a sign of a robust campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz in the dead-red state, enough so that two election rating outlets dropped Cruz's chances from "solid" to "likely."
In Arizona, the health of sitting Sen. John McCain could mean two open seats there. Though Rep. Martha McSally is looking strong in her candidacy to replace the retiring Sen. Jeff Flake, a second open seat could very well go Democrat if the Republicans options are Kelli Ward or Sheriff Joe Arpaio, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
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