Three Democratic incumbents are facing serious prospects for defeat as the race for control of the Senate enters its final month, according to
Politico.
Republicans say they see signs that they have the advantage in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana, three red states that the GOP believes are within reach, even though officials in both parties say these races are still up for grabs.
Specifically, Alaska GOP challenger Dan Sullivan has seen a surge in support after conservatives consolidated behind him following the primary. His opponent, Sen. Mark Begich, has also been dealt a blow after he was forced to pull a
controversial attack ad.
Louisiana
Sen. Mary Landrieu's campaign has faltered over news that she made expense claims for charter flights, making way for Republican Bill Cassidy.
And in Arkansas, Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has made progress by improving his style, in the race against Sen. Mark Pryor.
"There are no races to be put away early in this cycle, and many of our races are within the margin of error," National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran told Politico. "The piece of good news is that Republicans, almost without exception, are on top in that margin of error and . . . the Republican numbers are getting better."
Republicans need to win six seats to take control of the Senate, and are hoping to capitalize on President Barack Obama's low approval ratings. Recent polls put his approval at 34 percent in Arkansas, and around 37 percent in Louisiana and Alaska, according to Politico.
"In the spring, it was easy for people to say Democrats were running really strong campaigns in these states," Paul Lindsay of the conservative Super PAC
American Crossroads told Politico. "I don't think you can safely say that anymore. They're running scared."
But the Democratic incumbents have enjoyed a lead in spending by outside groups, including the Senate Majority PAC, which enabled the party to define GOP challengers early in the race, Politico said. And they also believe they have been successful in shifting their races to local and state issues to minimize the negative impact of Obama and Obamacare.
"The Republicans in these states have done a particularly poor job of introducing themselves to voters, and given Democrats the opportunity to define them as out-of-step and out-of-touch," Matt Canter of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee told Politico. "No one knows what Tom Cotton, Bill Cassidy or Dan Sullivan stand for other than more extreme partisanship."
Meanwhile, each party has indicated that they are ahead according to their own internal polling, but there is still much uncertainty over which way undecided voters will go in each state.
"Republicans have said for 18 months that these three red states were slam-dunks, but here we are 33 days out and each one is a jump ball for the Republicans — at best," Ty Matsdorf, campaigns director for the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, told Politico.
"From my seat, I'd much rather be us than them."
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