There's no metric to track it, but fate might be the greatest challenge to Republicans in holding their one-seat majority in the Senate in 2018, Jeff Greenfield wrote in his analysis for Politico Magazine.
Case in point: Who would have thought a Democrat from Alabama would take a seat in the Senate?
And with Sens. John McCain and Thad Cochran ailing, the prospects of what could happen are mounting for Republicans before the midterms even get here, Greenfield writes.
"This speculation might seem morbid, but there’s a point that has to be kept in mind as the 2018 midterms loom," Greenfield writes. "Beyond the traditional measurements … there are matters of fate that can and have played decisive roles in who takes the reins of power. And in a Senate so narrowly divided, those matters loom especially large."
Senate Republicans might actually welcome the midterms; Democrats have to defend 24 seats - not counting Independent-Democrats Angus King and Bernie Sanders - and 10 of those are in states won by President Donald Trump in 2016.
Senate Republicans are on the hook for defending just eight, though Democrats have their sights set on flipping seats in Nevada (Dean Heller) and Arizona (Jeff Flake).
But it's the unforeseen - be it failing health or more lawmakers potentially retiring over sexual harassment accusations - that's making both sides more than a little nervous.
"No one but the most fanatical partisan looks at the political horizon in hopes that illness, injury or death removes an opponent from the battle. But neither does it serve a clear-eyed view of politics to ignore how the arrival of the unexpected can radically alter expectations.
"There have been too many times when a 'black swan' has appeared to ignore the possibility—and the consequences— of a sudden twist of fate," Greenfield concluded.
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