While Democrats hold a 7-percentage point lead on the generic ballot in the last Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll before Tuesday's midterms, the data suggests a toss-up that will come down to voter turnout in the battleground races.
"Turn it one way and the numbers suggest a good Democratic night; turn it again, and it suggests the GOP might squeak through," Democratic pollster Peter Hart told the Journal.
The overall gap has tightened by two points since the previous edition of the poll, and the poll results are far tighter in the most important areas – even within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.53 points.
"In House races identified by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as tossups or only leaning toward one party, 47 percent of registered voters said they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 44 percent favored Republicans," the Journal reported.
On the question of whom they would prefer to control Congress, Democrats drew 50 percent of likely voters to Republicans' 43 percent. The gap was 9 points in the previous edition of the poll.
"It has closed," Republican pollster Bill McInturff told the Journal. "It is a more competitive race. But for Republicans, it feels slightly short of where you'd want to be for a national election."
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polled 774 likely voters Nov. 1-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.53 percentage points.
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