Fmr Gov. Andrew Cuomo Early Frontrunner in NYC Mayor's Race

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's campaign for mayor of New York City has taken an early lead in a crowded field, but some campaign insiders question if this will translate into a victory in the Democrat primary this summer.

Cuomo, who resigned from office in 2021 due to allegations of sexual misconduct that he continues to deny, announced his campaign to replace New York City Mayor Eric Adams on March 1 and quickly stood out as the leading candidate among Democrats in multiple polls.

Adams, who himself faced a scandal after he was indicted on corruption charges only to be pardoned by President Donald Trump, has found his polling numbers falling in recent weeks.

A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month shows Adams' job approval rating hitting an all-time low with just 28% of New Yorkers approving of his performance and 58% disapproving, including 78% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and 52% of Republicans.

That same poll showed Adams with just 11% support in the upcoming mayor's race, with Cuomo leading with 31% of the vote. No other candidate garnered more than 10% of the vote.

"Three and a half years after scandals forced him to resign as New York's governor, Andrew Cuomo leads a crowded field of Democratic mayoral hopefuls with a boost from moderate Democrats. A key number to watch: 16%, the slice of voters who are undecided as this race gains more attention," Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow wrote in her analysis.

However, The Wall Street Journal reported Cuomo's frontrunner status might not ensure his victory in the Democratic Party's primary, which is set to take place June 24.

There have been several recent mayoral elections in the city where candidates who took early leads faltered as the election heated up. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang held a strong lead in early polls during the 2021 election, only for Adams to see a surge in support just before the primary.

A similar situation occurred in 2013 when former city council speaker Christine Quinn lost in the primary to former Mayor Bill de Blasio, then the city's Public Advocate, despite her leading in polls taken during the early weeks of the election.

"Everybody says, 'Oh, Cuomo's going to win.' He looks that way today, but there's a long time till June," Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democrat campaign consultant, told the Journal. "He's running as the stability agent who knows how to be a manager, and three months out, those arguments are working.

"But polls in March for a June election are about as good as a shearling coat in Manhattan in July."