Analysis: Moore Likely to Still Win Alabama Special Election

Amid wildly varying polls that offer no concrete direction, predicting who will win the Alabama special election between embattled Roy Moore and Doug Jones comes down to Republican vs. Democrat in a dead-red state, according to CBS News analysis.

Assuming there's no other big shoe to drop on Moore's alleged sexual misconduct from nearly 40 years ago, the Dec. 12 special election comes down to this — it's highly unlikely Alabamans are going to put a Democrat in the Senate.

Moore has a composite 2-point lead on Jones, according to RealClearPolitics, on the basis of these three recent polls:

• Moore up 10 points.
• Jones up 4 points.
• Moore-Jones tied.

So instead of a landslide victory for Moore, he will likely eke out a more narrow victory.

The two possible pain points for Moore could be if Republicans stay home or if there's an 11th-hour write-in candidate, with the latter being rather unlikely, according to CBS News.

Moore also has had to endure the many shouts from Capitol Hill Republicans to step aside, but they don't get a vote. Plus, Moore can dismiss them as the very establishment he has set out to disrupt.

As long as Alabama Republicans and Moore supporters continue to paint the story as fake news and an attempt to smear Moore, and there are no more accusations against the former state Supreme Court judge, Moore should hold on for the victory, according to CBS News.

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