Stats Expert Silver Says Recount 'Very Unlikely' to Overturn Results

The recount of the presidential election in Wisconsin is very unlikely to change the results, statistician Nate Silver tweeted Sunday.

To be clear, the recount is **very** unlikely to overturn the results, unless there's been massive, coordinated manipulation of results. 

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 27, 2016

Green Party nominee Jill Stein called for the recount after a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers said they detected an alleged pattern might point to voter manipulation, which was also apparent in Michigan and Pennsylvania. These experts said Hillary Clinton received 7 percent fewer votes in Wisconsin counties that mainly used electronic voting machines, which could have been a result of hacking.

Clinton's campaign said it would participate in the recount process.

But Silver, who is editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, a website that mostly utilizes statistical analysis and focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging, said the suspicious results can be explained when controlling for demographic factors like race and education.

Although Silver doubts the results will change, he is not against the procedure, particularly after President-elect Donald Trump so harshly criticized the recount.

This is turning me in favor of the recount. The peaceful-transition-of-power playbook doesn't usually include taunting your opponents. https://t.co/zp09H1tBYS

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 27, 2016

However, Silver did emphasize the recount should be seen for what it is.

So it's not really a "recount". Not about a few votes here and there. It's more like an audit or an investigation into possible fraud. 

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 27, 2016

…which is also highly unlikely. But is it 1-in-20 unlikely or 1-in-20000 unlikely? Hard to say. Not a case where statistics are helpful. 

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 27, 2016

Despite the Clinton campaign's participation in the recount process, The New York Times reported U.S. officials said the results "accurately reflect the will of the American people," despite Russian attempts to undermine the presidential election.

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