A Harvard-Harris poll released Tuesday shows an evenly divided midterm electorate, with 50% of likely voters supporting Democrat candidates, and 50% backing Republicans.
Despite tensions over the war in Iran, partisan loyalty remains strong. The poll found 97% of Democrats and 96% of Republicans plan to vote for their party's nominee. Independents are narrowly split, favoring Democrats 52% to 48%.
The survey comes as both parties prepare for a contentious midterm cycle shaped by changing election rules and redistricting.
A full 60% of respondents support proposals championed by President Donald Trump to tighten voter ID requirements, while 40% oppose them. The proposals include stricter identification standards and changes to mail-in voting access, with exemptions for certain groups.
Redistricting is also a major issue among registered voters. Several states — including California, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia — have redrawn or are in the process of redrawing congressional maps.
Voting districts typically are redrawn once a decade, after each census. But Trump triggered an unusual round of mid-decade redistricting last year when he urged Texas Republicans to redraw House districts to give the GOP an edge in the midterm elections.
California Democrats reciprocated, and redistricting efforts soon cascaded across states.
The poll found 54% of voters prefer state legislatures to control redistricting, compared with 46% who favor independent commissions. A majority, 56%, support limits by courts on political gerrymandering.
The survey of 2,745 registered voters conducted online April 23-26 has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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