Professor Who Predicts Presidents: Biden 'Absolutely' Can Win

A historian who successfully has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 says President Joe Biden "absolutely" can win reelection in November.

Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said "it's way too early to make a final prediction" regarding an expected 2024 general election race between Biden and former President Donald Trump, but added, "a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election." "I absolutely think Joe Biden can win a second term," Lichtman told the Britain's Times Radio.

Lichtman spoke on Super Tuesday, when most polls showed Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical matchup. CBS News/YouGov poll results released during the weekend found Trump holding a 4-point lead over Biden.

Lichtman, though, said early surveys mean nothing.

"Take the early polls and do with them what the great British philosopher David Hughes said you should do with works of superstition – consign them to the flames," Lichtman said. "They have absolutely no predictive value. There is so much yet to come."

In his 1988 book, "Thirteen Keys to the Presidency," Lichtman explained how he forms his eventual presidential election prediction. His 13 keys include:

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (Not so in 2024)
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

"Based upon the keys, a lot of keys would have to turn, over the next few months, against Joe Biden to predict his defeat," Lichtman told Times Radio.

"By running, Joe Biden wins the incumbency key, one of my keys, he wins the party contest key because there's no battle. That's two off the top. Six more would have to go against him to predict his defeat.

"[If] Joe Biden doesn't run, they lose incumbency, they lose the party contest because there's no heir apparent and only four keys would have to fall to predict a Democrat defeat."

However, there are signs that Biden could struggle to attain his needed "keys."

Robert Kennedy Jr. is running to be a third-party candidate; Biden is being investigated for alleged influence peddling by the House; the administration is affected by the the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars; polls show that the economy is a major concern for voters; and many of Trump's harshest critics admit the former president does not lack charisma.

Looking at November's election, Lichtman said North Carolina is "a must-win state" for Republicans.

"North Carolina has got a lot of Electoral College votes, it's a fairly large state and although Republicans have done well recently in North Carolina, it does have a history of being a battleground state," he said. "If Republicans can't win North Carolina, they're not going to win the presidency."