Hillary Clinton would have been better served picking a running mate who hails from Florida than Tim Kaine,
writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.
According to Silver, vice presidents are usually good for a two-point bump in their home state, in this case Virginia. Though it's a swing state, Silver writes those two points won't help Clinton much in a state she could carry in November anyway.
Silver calculates that picking Kaine results in just a 0.7 percent chance that he swings the election for Clinton.
On the other hand, if Clinton had tabbed her VP from Florida, that would have given her a 1.8 percent point bump on the electoral map. A running mate from Pennsylvania, Ohio or North Carolina would have been better picks than Kaine, too.
However, with just a 2.5-point lead in latest polling there, Kaine should help carry Virginia.
"Elections are won on the margins, and Clinton would be marginally better off with Kaine's help in Virginia than without it," Silver wrotes.
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