Polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump are not deliberately — or maliciously — wrong, but they're not reaching all of Trump's supporters and are likely not 100% accurate, according to a new analysis.
Trump and his campaign routinely criticize any poll that shows him trailing, including a recent CNN survey that found Biden had a 14-point lead. Politico notes that there is nothing nefarious going on to skew these polls toward Biden. But they do have the same issue the 2016 polls had: They're not reaching all of the Trump supporters.
At the center of the issue are white voters without college degrees; in 2016, Trump earned 67% of this demographic's support, while Democrat Hillary Clinton got just 28%. Current polls, according to Politico, are not capturing enough of this voting bloc, which unintentionally skews the results toward Biden.
"I would say that most, if not all, of the concerns that we expressed still hold — some to a lesser degree," Courtney Kennedy, the director of survey research at the Pew Research Center, told Politico. Kennedy led the effort to analyze the 2016 polls after Trump's victory.
"But I think some of the fundamental, structural challenges that came to a head in 2016 are still in place in 2020."
The RealClear Politics average shows Biden with an 8.1-point lead heading into the summer in which they will accept their respective parties' nominations. And while it's unknown what the true numbers are, Politico notes that Trump's situation is likely not as dire as it seems despite catching flak from all sides.
This year alone has been marred by Trump's impeachment, the coronavirus and his administration's response to it, and the racial protests plaguing the nation.
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