In December of 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed a joint session of Congress. In that speech, the 44-year-old Zelenskyy explained the current advantages enjoyed by the Russian military.
President Zelenskyy said, "The occupiers have a significant advantage in artillery. They have an advantage in ammunition. They have much more missiles and planes than we ever had. And it’s true, but our defense forces stand."
Later in the speech, President Zelenskyy admitted that they need more assistance to win:
"We have artillery, yes. Thank you. we have it. Is it enough? Honestly, not really.
"To ensure Bakhmut is not just a stronghold, that it holds back the Russian army, but for the Russian army to completely pull out, more cannons and shells are needed."
In December 2022, Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny gave an interview with The Economist. In 2021, President Zelenskyy promoted General Zalluzhny as commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s top general told The Economist in his interview that Ukraine could win the war if the West provided him with sufficient resources.
General Zaluzhny said, "I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVS [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers."
In response to this interview, retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor wrote in The American Conservative, "Truthfully, General Zaluzhny is not asking for assistance, he’s asking for a new army."
There are two main questions for the Pentagon. First, someone should ask U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is General Zaluzny correct?
Even if NATO members collectively decided to grant this request, could Ukraine win the war? The next question is can NATO members send this equipment in time before the Russians launch a new offensive?
What will happen to Ukraine if they do not receive this assistance?
In the same interview, General Zaluzhny said that a Russian offensive could come as early as January or as late as March. A year before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, Gen. Douglas MacArthur famously warned:
"The history of failure in war can be summed up in two words: too late.
"Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy; too late in realizing the mortal danger; too late in preparedness; too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance; too late in standing with one’s friends."
What is the point of sending Ukraine billions of dollars in assistance if the purpose is not to win the war?
According to the Council of Foreign Relations, from January to November 2022, the U.S. government provided Ukraine with $22.9 billion in military aid, 15.1 billion in financial assistance, and 9.9 billion in humanitarian assistance.
In November 2022, Gen. Mark Milley, said, "So, in terms of probability, the probability of a Ukrainian military victory defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they define or what the claim is Crimea, the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily."
Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer, predicted in September that despite Ukraine’s success in September that the Russians would eventually win.
After Ukraine’s victory in Kharkiv, Ritter wrote:
"The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive needs to be put into a proper perspective. The casualties Ukraine suffered, and is still suffering, to achieve this victory are unsustainable.
"Ukraine has exhausted its strategic reserves, and they will have to be reconstituted if Ukraine were to have any aspirations of continuing an advance along these lines."
In October, Ritter explained to Judge Andrew Napolitano that President Putin’s decisions in September to partially mobilize 300,000 additional troops and the intent to annex four Ukrainian oblasts changed the war.
Time will tell if these 300,000 troops can take over the four oblasts that Russia formally annexed. In April 2014, Putin briefly revealed his desire to take back parts of Ukraine:
"The essential issue is how to ensure the legitimate rights and interests of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the southeast of Ukraine.
"I would like to remind you that what was called Novorossiya (New Russia) back in the tsarist days — Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Nikolayev and Odessa — were not part of Ukraine back then. These territories were given to Ukraine in the 1920s by the Soviet government. Why?"
If we do not accept General Zaluzhny’s request, Putin will try to take all of Donbas and Novorossiya. If Putin succeeds in taking Donbas and "Novorossiya," Ukraine will become a landlocked vassal state that is dependent on Moscow.
If Putin landlocks Ukraine, it is possible that Putin will try to annex the neighboring breakaway region of Transnistria from Moldova as well.
The Biden administration should formally respond to General Zaluzhny’s request immediately. The American people need to know if General Zaluzhny’s request is big enough to save Ukraine.
Robert Zapesochny is a researcher and writer whose work focuses on foreign affairs, national security and presidential history. He has been published in numerous outlets, including The American Spectator, the Washington Times, and The American Conservative. When he's not writing, Robert works for a medical research company in New York. Read Robert Zapesochny's Reports — More Here.
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