The history of the 20th century was shaped by World War I and the Treaty of Versailles. Germany’s defeat and subsequent economic collapse created the conditions for Adolf Hitler’s rise, leading to World War II and the Holocaust.
However, different leaders at critical moments could have altered the course of events.
One such moment was the early death of Kaiser Wilhelm II’s father, Frederick III. Had he lived another 20 years, Germany’s history might have been different.
As a liberal-leaning monarch married to Princess Victoria, the daughter of Britain’s Queen Victoria, Frederick III admired constitutional monarchy and supported democratic reforms. His prolonged rule could have aligned Britain and Germany into a close alliance.
By contrast, Wilhelm II alienated Britain with his naval arms race, which led Britain to ally with France in 1904 and Russia in 1907. His dismissal of Otto von Bismarck and abandonment of the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia in 1890 set the stage for Germany’s encirclement and eventual downfall in World War I.
The Lesson for Today: Leadership Matters
Just as past leadership failures led to instability and conflict, today’s political decisions will shape Germany’s future stability. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has grown into a major political force, particularly in the former East Germany.
While economic grievances have contributed to the AfD’s popularity, its rise is also fueled by Euroscepticism, cultural anxieties, and frustration with mainstream parties. Since its founding in 2013, the AfD has steadily gained support, growing from 2 million votes in the 2013 elections to over 10 million votes in the 2025 elections.
The AfD capitalized on the 2015 refugee crisis when Chancellor Angela Merkel opened Germany’s borders and declared, “Wir schaffen das!” (“We can do it!”).
Germany's Basic Law (Article 16a) guarantees the right to asylum; however, it does not mandate citizenship.
The political backlash intensified when subsequent policy changes enabled many of the 2015 refugees to become German citizens. In 2024, the German government reduced the residency requirement for citizenship from eight to five years, further accelerating naturalization.
The lack of a coordinated burden-sharing mechanism among EU nations placed disproportionate pressure on Germany, exacerbating domestic discontent.
AfD voters are not a monolith; their support stems from both economic concerns and cultural fears. Many working-class voters feel abandoned by mainstream parties, particularly in East Germany.
Germany’s mainstream parties should work to integrate immigrants by emphasizing fundamental democratic values, including women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, and religious tolerance.
A dangerous aspect of the AfD’s rise is its normalization of extremist rhetoric. Several AfD leaders have made controversial remarks about Germany’s Nazi past.
For example, Björn Höcke, a senior AfD figure, referred to the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin as a “monument of shame.” Similarly, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the party, has criticized Germany’s remembrance culture, using the term "Schuldkult" ("guilt cult").
The party has also openly promoted concepts like “remigration”, implying the forced deportation of immigrants and naturalized citizens who do not conform to their vision of German identity.
The party’s contradictions are also apparent. While it pushes for traditional family values, Alice Weidel is in a same-sex marriage with Sri Lankan-born Sarah Bossard and has maintained residences in both Germany and Switzerland, where she has lived with her family.
Maintaining dual residences in different countries while holding national office, creates a conflict of interest, particularly regarding taxation, policy influence, and national loyalty. Despite this, the AfD has successfully framed itself as a defender of Germany’s national and cultural heritage.
In 2024, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Verfassungsschutz (BfV) won another legal battle against the AfD, allowing it to maintain the party's classification as a “suspected” far-right extremist organization. This classification allows the agency to conduct surveillance on the party.
To counter the rise of extremist movements, Germany’s mainstream parties must do more than simply form a grand coalition. While cooperation between Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU and Olaf Scholz’s SPD might create a temporary barrier against the AfD, history suggests that broad political alliances alone are not enough.
Voters need real solutions: economic opportunity across all regions, low inflation, reduced energy costs, a responsible immigration policy, and firm opposition to historical revisionism. If mainstream parties fail to address these issues effectively, the AfD will likely continue gaining ground in future elections, threatening the stability of Germany’s democracy.
Furthermore, historical accountability requires that young Germans recognize the importance of acknowledging the past while also supporting Israel’s right to exist and defend itself. While Germans do not have to agree with every Israeli policy, they must respect that Israel is a sovereign nation making its own decisions.
If past German leaders had made different choices, the 20th century might have looked very different. Today, Germany must choose leaders capable of solving its problems before public frustration leads to destructive alternatives.
Robert Zapesochny is a researcher and writer whose work focuses on foreign affairs, national security and presidential history. He has been published in numerous outlets, including The American Spectator, the Washington Times, and The American Conservative. When he's not writing, Robert works for a medical research company in New York. Read Robert Zapesochny's Reports — More Here.
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