According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in July 2023, it was projected that the federal government will spend $756 billion dollars on our nuclear forces from 2023 to 2032.
The July 2023 CBO estimate includes $118 billion dollars on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in this period. Most of this money is projected to be spent by the Department of Defense ($103 billion) and the rest from the Department of Energy.
In January 2024, the Department of Defense announced that the new estimate will likely be $131 billion dollars. This program is now 37% above its 2020 estimate of $95.8 billion.
We are replacing our Minuteman III missiles with the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBMs. The Minute Man III has been deployed since 1970.
The Sentinel is scheduled to be equipped with a W87-1 warhead. This nuclear warhead has a yield of 475 kilotons (kt).
To put that number in perspective, the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima was only 15 kilotons.
The Minute Man III is single warhead missile. In 2015, America’s Minute Man III arsenal was equipped with two types of available warheads: 200 W78 (335 kt) warheads and 250 W87 (300 kt).
Land-based ICBMs are no longer necessary. In 2016, former Secretary of Defense William Perry wrote an op-ed on this topic:
“First and foremost, the United States can safely phase out its land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force, a key facet of Cold War nuclear policy. Retiring the ICBMs would save considerable costs, but it isn’t only budgets that would benefit. These missiles are some of the most dangerous weapons in the world. They could even trigger an accidental nuclear war.”
Since it is public knowledge where these ICBMs are based, the United States is forced to keep these vulnerable missiles on alert. According to the Department of Defense, “America's ICBM force has remained on continuous, around-the-clock alert since 1959.”
In the same 2016 op-ed written by Defense Secretary Perry:
“If our sensors indicate that enemy missiles are en route to the United States, the president would have to consider launching ICBMs before the enemy missiles could destroy them; once they are launched, they cannot be recalled. The president would have less than 30 minutes to make that terrible decision.”
According to a 2020 report from the Union of Concerned Scientists:
“When the United States first developed ballistic missiles, the land-based intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were more accurate and carried more powerful warheads than did the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), allowing them to destroy Soviet land-based missiles while the SLBMs could not. The Pentagon was also not confident in its ability to securely communicate with submarines at sea. For these reasons, the United States believed that ICBMs were essential.”
According to the same report from the Union of Concerned Scientists:
“The technical limitations of SLBMs that led the United States to rely on ICBMs no longer exist, and SLBMs have the advantage of being invulnerable to attack when at sea. The United States should retire its ICBM force and rely on its nuclear submarine and bomber forces.”
In 2020, almost 70% of America’s deployed nuclear arsenal was located on 14 Ohio-class submarines. According to the Congressional Research Service, in 2020, our Ohio-class submarines were equipped with 230 Trident II D5 missiles with 1,012 warheads out of 1,467 deployed warheads.
If we can cut over $131 billion dollars from the federal budget over the next decade by retiring our ICBMs, we will not only save money, but likely save lives.
According to the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review:
“By the 2030s, the United States will, for the first time in its history, face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries. This will create new stresses on stability and new challenges for deterrence, assurance, arms control, and risk reduction.”
According to the Department of Defense, “Fourteen Ohio-class SSBNs make up the most survivable leg of the nuclear triad.” The land-based leg of our nuclear triad is the most vulnerable.
If world leaders are unable to a prevent another arms race, the United States can build more submarines and strategic bombers. We shouldn’t build anymore ICBMs.
Robert Zapesochny is a researcher and writer whose work focuses on foreign affairs, national security and presidential history. He has been published in numerous outlets, including The American Spectator, the Washington Times, and The American Conservative. When he's not writing, Robert works for a medical research company in New York. Read Robert Zapesochny's Reports — More Here.
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