Can We Prevent Another Arms Race?

In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended cooperation on the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

This month, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced that the Biden administration wanted to work with Russia to resume cooperation on arms control despite the war in Ukraine.

The number of nuclear weapons peaked from 70,374 (1986) to 12,512 (2023).

In 1987, then-President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which is the first nuclear reduction agreement.

According to the Arms Control Association, this treaty eliminated "nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers."

In 1991, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the START Treaty and began to substantially reduce their nuclear arsenals.

As of March 2023, the United States (5,244 nuclear weapons) and the Russia (5,889 nuclear weapons) had 89 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. The other nuclear powers are China (410), France (290), UK (225), Pakistan (170), India (164), Israel (90), and North Korea (30).

When the 1991 START Treaty expired in 2009, President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the New START Treaty in 2010.

According to the State Department, the United States and Russia complied with the treaty and its limits of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads on 800 total launchers by February 2018.

The American nuclear triad consists of 400 land-based Minute Man III missiles, 280 Trident II D5 missiles on their 14 Ohio-class submarines, and 66 strategic bombers (46 B-52H bombers and 20 B2 bombers).

The Russian nuclear arsenal consists of both strategic and tactical nuclear forces.

In 2022, the Russian strategic offensive forces consisted of 1,185 nuclear warheads on 306 strategic ICBMs, 800 nuclear warheads on their submarines, and 580 nuclear warheads on 68 strategic bombers (55 Tu-95 Bear and 13 Tu-160 Blackjack).

The Russians also had 1,912 tactical nuclear weapons in 2022. In 2021, United States had approximately 100 tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.

The New START Treaty did not include limits on tactical nuclear weapons. The New START Treaty expires in February 2026.

In his book "From Cold War to Hot Peace,"

Ambassador Michael McFaul wrote about his experiences in the Obama administration. According to McFaul, the New START Treaty would not have been approved in the U.S. Senate without containing many of the important verification measures in the 1991 START Treaty.

Beyond the limits on missiles and warheads, and inspections, Washington and Moscow agreed to share their telemetry, which is technical data during missile tests.

This way, neither country could secretly develop new missiles systems.

McFaul also mentions the issue of unique identifiers, which are "alphanumeric serial numbers" to verify every ICBM, SLBM, and strategic bomber.

We need to negotiate a deal with the Russians to reduce nuclear weapons further and invite every country with nuclear weapons to accept START I’s inspection and verification measures such as telemetry sharing, and unique identifiers.

The United States and the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 (NPT).

There are 190 countries in this agreement who are committed to working together on non-proliferation, the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and the eventual disarmament of nuclear weapons.

It is unlikely that the United States and Russia will agree to any further reductions unless their bilateral relationship dramatically improves, and China stops expanding its nuclear arsenal.

According to the Pentagon, "If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will likely field a stockpile of about 1500 warheads by its 2035 timeline."

To prevent an arms race with the Chinese, we need maximum legitimacy in the world to press forward with a new agreement on verification as well as a promise that no country will exceed the limits of the 2010 New START Treaty.

India, Pakistan, and Israel have not signed the NPT because each country needs their nuclear arsenal for the moment.

India has border disputes with both Pakistan and China.

Pakistan cannot deter India without nuclear weapons.

The Israelis need their nuclear weapons to deter their adversaries.

For decades, the United States, and other world powers, have failed in their diplomatic efforts to end the North Korean nuclear program.

North Korea is the only country which has tested nuclear weapons in the 21st century.

From 2006 to 2017, the North Koreans conducted six nuclear tests.

The North Koreans will need assurances that their regime will survive without nuclear weapons. The great powers must also prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

As long as there is a demand for nuclear weapons, these weapons will always exist.

Even if we cannot substantially reduce these weapons for the foreseeable future, there might be a strong demand to routinely inspect and verify every nuclear weapon in the world.

Robert Zapesochny is a researcher and writer whose work focuses on foreign affairs, national security and presidential history. He has been published in numerous outlets, including The American Spectator, the Washington Times, and The American Conservative. When he's not writing, Robert works for a medical research company in New York. Read Robert Zapesochny's Reports — More Here.