13 Percent of Term-Limited State Seats Flip Parties on Election Day

When a state legislator is prevented from running again due to term limits, the opposing party wins the seat 13 percent of the time. While such turnover may seem relatively modest, a Ballotpedia analysis found that it is twice as high as for non-term-limited seats.

The study analyzed 890 seats in 15 states held by a term-limited legislator from 2010 to 2011 and from 2013 to 2016. In 120 of those races (13 percent), the term-limited officials were replaced by an officeholder of a different political party.

Due to redistricting issues, the 2012 elections were not included in this study. See methodology.

Over the same time period, 19,642 non-term-limited state legislative seats were up for election. Of these non-term-limited seats, 1,329 seats, or roughly 7 percent, changed partisan control.

The following term-limited state legislative seats changed political party control from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:

• 96 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican

• 20 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat

• Three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent

• One state legislative seat flipped from independent to Republican

The following states demonstrated notable partisan shifts in term-limited state legislative districts from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:

• In Arkansas, 22 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.

• In Oklahoma, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.

• In Maine, 15 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat, and three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent.

• In Montana, 13 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.

• In Missouri, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.

• In Michigan, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while two state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat.

Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.​

Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.