CNBC Poll: 60% of CFOs Expect a Recession in 2025

Sixty percent of chief financial officers think the U.S. will enter a recession in the second half of 2025, and another 15% say a recession will hit in 2026, according to the quarterly CNBC CFO Council Survey.

This is in stark contrast to CNBC’s fourth-quarter survey, which asked CFOs about the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the economy. At that time, a mere 7% of CFOs said they thought a recession was in the cards.

While some chief financial officers praised Trump for carrying out campaign promises and bringing more manufacturing to the U.S., many criticized the president’s tariffs for starting a global trade war and upending their business plans.

“Too chaotic for business to navigate effectively” said CFO respondent to the first-quarter survey.

Other descriptions: “Extreme”; “Disruptive”; “Aggressive”; “A wild ride.”

In recent weeks, fears of a recession have been rising, with some financial firms putting the odds of a recession as high as 50%.

The CFO Council survey was conducted among 20 respondents between March 10 and March 21.

Asked what specific risks could cause a recession in the U.S., 30% of the CFOs cited trade, followed by inflation (25%) and consumer demand (20%). The survey was conducted before this week’s consumer confidence survey hit a 12-year low.

Ninety percent of CFOs are fearful that tariffs will trigger “resurgent inflation.”

Typically, when asked to name stock market sectors that will outperform over the next six months, CFOs consistently choose technology, healthcare and energy. This quarter, though, the majority said they “don’t know.”

Many of the CFOs think the Dow Jones Industrial Average will bounce around 40,000 before passing 50,000; this would mean the Dow, now at 42,800, could lose several thousand points more.

The survey also showed a 10% decline in CFOs’ planned capital expenditure outlays. While not a major decline, it is moving in the wrong direction.