The 2018 hurricane forecast has three or four storms from the Atlantic Ocean possibly hitting the U.S., fewer than last year’s deadly summer storm season when major hurricanes hit Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico.
Still, meteorologists are forecasting a slightly above average storm season in which 12 to 15 tropical storms will form over the typical hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, AccuWeather reported.
Of those storms, six to eight are expected to become hurricanes and three to five of those are expected to grow into major hurricanes, the weather site noted. Temperatures on the sea surface are expected to stay warmer than usual across most of the ocean and normal to above normal over the main developmental region, where more than 85 percent of tropical storms start, AccuWeather said.
"Last year we had 17 tropical storms," AccuWeather Atlantic hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said. "This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal.”
"Right now, we are in a weakening La Niña pattern, but the climate pattern is expected to go into what’s called a neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear. The thing that's causing the balance to tip in one direction [this year] is that sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal," Kottlowski said.
Last year's Atlantic hurricane season produced 10 hurricanes, including six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5), and including the first two major hurricanes to hit the continental U.S. in 12 years, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.
"This was a hurricane season that wouldn't quit," retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, the acting NOAA administrator said after last hurricane season. "The season started early with a storm in April and the peak of the season featured an onslaught of 10 successive hurricanes.”
AccuWeather said that according to historical records and the projected pattern, the area from Houston to Florida and up through the Outer Banks of North Carolina are more favorable for direct impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes.
"Anywhere else along the coast, everybody should still be vigilant and prepare for a possible direct impact," Kottlowski said. "You should have a hurricane plan in action. In other words: If you had to evacuate, what would you take with you? And if you were staying home, how would you deal with a storm that may knock your power out, may knock your water service out."
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