The hurricane forecasting model that predicts the least activity in 2018 – 4 hurricanes, 2 of them major – was the most accurate model for 2017 hurricane season. The University of Arizona model also happens to have been extremely accurate over the last four years.
There has been considerable debate about what kind of activity the Atlantic would see this hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Subtropical Storm Alberto lumbered ashore a few days before the season’s start, becoming the first named Atlantic storm in 2018 and prompting speculation in weather media reports there would be many more to come.
However, the UA model predicts the number of hurricanes this year will be below average, Phys.org reported, with just four, two of which will reach Category 3, 4 or 5 status.
The median has been seven hurricanes, two of them major storms.
The forecast made earlier this year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a "near-or above-normal" 2018 hurricane season.
AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski concurred, saying that although this year may not be quite as active as last year, there will still probably be "normal to slightly above normal" activity.
The UA prediction is the lowest of all major published forecasts for 2018 and, looking back at the last four years, its team of researchers has been pretty spot-on with their forecasts.
UA made one of the highest forecasts for the 2017 hurricanes season – 11 hurricanes, 6 of them major – which ended up being the most accurate. The season ended with 10 hurricanes, six of them major.
Behind UA’s successful predictions is a hurricane forecasting model developed by Xubin Zeng, his former graduate student Kyle Davis, and former UA professor Elizabeth Ritchie.
Zeng explained that, since they began issuing their annual hurricane prediction in 2014, their average error is 1.5 hurricanes, Phys.org noted.
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