GOP Loses House, Senate in Byron Wien 2018 Predictions – And No Trump Indictments

The GOP will lose control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections, and special counsel Robert Mueller won't be indicting any Trumps, according to Blackstone’s Byron Wien in his list of 10 “surprises” for 2018.

For the last 33 years the vice chairman in the private wealth solutions group has been sharing his views on various economic, financial market and political surprises predicted for the year ahead, and if he is on the money 2018 could hold a number of upsets.

When he says “surprise,” what Byron is referring to is an event that has a 50 percent likelihood of happening, despite the average investor assigning only a one-out-of-three probability to it.

While last year’s forecast didn’t do so well, The Business Insider noted that some – such as the economy achieving a three percent growth rate – rang true.

Here’s what Wien is predicting for 2018:

1. Top of the list is North Korea suspending its nuclear development program after China cuts off all fuel and food shipments to the country.

2. Populism, tribalism and anarchy will spread while in the U.K. Jeremy Corbyn will become the next prime minister.

3. The dollar will turnaround with a growth rate exceeding three percent in the U.S.

4. The S&P 500 will fall by 10 percent with higher interest rates causing the index to drop toward 2300.

5. West Texas Intermediate crude oil will move above $80 per barrel.

6. Inflation becomes a cause for concern, with continued world GDP growth putting pressure on commodity price.

7. Higher inflation rates will lead to rising interest rates

8. The agreement between NAFTA and Iran will prevail despite President Donald Trump rallying against them.

9. Republicans will lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the November election.

10. Xi Jinping will slow the economy down by limiting business borrowing in a bid to tackle China’s credit problems.

Byron also predicted that authorities would start to restrict cryptocurrency amid continuously increasing risks, NBC News noted, and that special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into the collusion with Russian operatives during the 2016 U.S. election will fail to implicate any members of the Trump family.

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