President Barack Obama is set to unveil a series of proposals when he delivers his State of the Union address Tuesday night, but those proposals are likely to be dead on arrival for some obvious — and not so obvious — reasons.
1. GOP in charge.
Republicans took control of the Senate in the midterm elections and now control both houses of Congress. They can therefore torpedo any presidential initiative as long as the GOP remains united.
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2. Taxes won’t fly.
Obama's boldest proposal is to raise $320 billion over 10 years by increasing the capital gains tax rate on wealthy Americans and introducing capital gains taxes on many inherited assets, with the revenue increases paying for tax breaks for middle-class workers.
But Republicans are convinced that keeping the capital gains tax and other taxes on investment as low as possible is key to spurring economic growth. Furthermore, the Senate's top tax law writer, Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, said the president's plan is a nonstarter that amounts to "class warfare" and is an attack on "job-creating small businesses."
3. He’s uncooperative.
Obama likely won't work with Republicans to garner the support he would need to press ahead with any of his new ideas. "I think, frankly, he's out of ideas if he is unwilling to work with Republicans, and I think he is unwilling to work with Republicans," Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., told The New York Times.
And Louisiana GOP Rep. Charles Boustany said: "This is just another poke in the eye at Republicans, rather than showing a willingness to cooperate."
4. No public backing.
Obama has no popular mandate that could help him sell his latest initiatives. "We just had an election in which the president said his policies were on the ballot," said Stuart Stevens, an adviser to Mitt Romney during his 2012 presidential campaign. "Hard to see what is different today than 60 days ago."
5. Focus is wrong.
Obama's proposals don't focus on the major concerns of Americans today, including jobs. The "proposals are so out of touch you have to ask if there is any point to the speech," said Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee.
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6. Hasn’t fixed economy enough.
Obama will tout the economic gains the country has made on his watch, but he will have an "uphill battle" garnering widespread support for his plans because he may not be able to convince Americans that he has made enough progress fixing the economy, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former Congressional Budget Office director, told the Times.
7. Education woes.
Obama's proposal to have government provide a tuition-free community college education for deserving students is likely to face stiff GOP opposition in light of low graduation rates and high default rates on government-backed student loans.
8. It’s been politics over policy.
Obama is aware that his major proposals won't pass Congress and so he has "decided to play politics with the last two years of his presidency instead of accomplishing something," Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist told Newsmax.
9. Weakness in his own party.
Even Democrats in Congress might not be enthusiastic about Obama's tax increase proposals, mindful of having to defend those policies come the next Election Day.
10. Lack of prior success.
Obama's track record on proposals made in previous State of the Union addresses has been terrible. In fact, he has the worst record of getting Congress to adopt his proposals in his State of the Union speeches since Gerald Ford — they have approved just 30 percent.
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