Marco Rubio was long touted as the only hope for the Republican Party in an increasingly diverse America, but the young Florida senator may not even win his home state this Tuesday.
"Let me tell you something: I will be on that ballot Tuesday,"
Rubio promised at a poorly attended Wednesday rally, clearly trying to downplay recent calls for him to drop out. "I’m going to campaign as long and as hard as it takes."
While his gumption may be admirable, the forecast for Rubio's campaign looks grim.
Gathered below are 12 reasons Rubio will lose Florida and, with it, a shot at the Republican nomination.
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1. He doesn't have a strong base of support in Florida's Cuban-American community — Despite being the first full-blooded Cuban-American to run for president (Ted Cruz is half), Rubio did not originally garner support from South Florida’s Cuban-American congressional delegation, which backed former Gov. Jeb Bush until he
dropped out of the race, Fox News Latino reported in February. It was only after Bush suspended his campaign that Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart, and Carlos Curbelo, as well as former U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, endorsed Rubio. Additionally, Bush beat Rubio in at least one poll that surveyed Cuban-American Republican voters in
Miami-Dade County, Politico reported.
2. He has little "ground game" —
According to The Guardian, Rubio has been criticized for arriving so late to his home state. "His team opened its campaign headquarters in Rubio’s hometown of Miami only on 28 February, two days before Super Tuesday, followed by a slow roll-out of district offices elsewhere. His campaign’s Fort Myers office opened on Wednesday, less than a week before the primary, and could yet prove to be short-lived if things go badly." Donald Trump, meanwhile,
set up a Florida field office back in November.
3. He didn't get Gov. Rick Scott's endorsement — The Florida governor refused to endorse Marco Rubio on Thursday when he was
pressed by the hosts of MSNBC's "Morning Joe," saying only that "Marco’s doing a very good job. We got elected together back in 2010. He’s done a very good job as our senator." Back in January,
Scott wrote an op-ed that praised Donald Trump highly, and stopped just shy of an endorsement.
4. His attacks on Trump didn't work — "Those exchanges with Mr. Trump were damaging,"
Al Cardenas, the former head of the Republican Party in Florida, said of Rubio's recent insults against Donald Trump. Cardenas once hired Rubio as a lawyer in his influential Miami firm, but said that Rubio is "pretty much finished" heading into the March 15 vote.
5. He admits he had the wrong strategy — "In terms of things that have to do with personal stuff, yeah, at the end of the day it's not something I'm entirely proud of," Rubio said this week of the
insults he hurled at Trump, The Hill reported. "My kids were embarrassed by it, and if I had to do it again I wouldn't."
6. He's losing in the polls — Trump outpaces Rubio by double-digit margins in nearly every recent poll of
Florida voters, according to tracker Real Clear Politics.
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7. He has no momentum — Rubio has only won one state primary, Minnesota, on March 1, and has less than half of the delegates of front-runner Donald Trump. He has no viable path to the Republican nomination, and voters know it.
8. His Puerto Rico win reveals shortcomings — On March 6, Rubio won Puerto Rico in a landslide victory. Rubio was the only candidate to visit the island nation, however, and he delivered his speech there in Spanish.
As the New Republic commented, "Rubio’s success there merely confirms that his appeal isn’t to the median GOP base voter."
9. He can't draw a crowd — On Wednesday, Rubio made headlines when he failed to draw a significant number of supports to his rally at Ted Hendricks Stadium. "The grandstands sat empty as Rubio tried to reassure increasingly restless supporters that he is still in it to win it in
2016, at least in Florida," Politico reported.
10. He's not a consistent debate winner — Marco Rubio turned into a talking-point robot when attacked by Chris Christie in a previous debate, damaging himself badly ahead of
Super Tuesday, The Washington Post reported. It's no guarantee he'll be able to turn in a solid debate performance ahead of Florida's vote on Tuesday.
11. He's had too many scandals in Florida — T
rump has called Rubio "Florida's no-show Senator" for his poor attendance record when it comes to representing his constituents in Washington, and the front-runner also pointed out his opponent's inappropriate use of government credit cards. Based on Trump's lead in the polls, these assertions have gained traction with many Floridians.
12. Trump has done a lot for Florida — While Rubio calls Florida his home state, Donald Trump has long-standing ties to the Sunshine State, having created jobs there by building hotels and golf courses.
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