According to a study released Monday, large earthquakes are more likely to happen during new and full moons, when the tides are unusually high.
With seismologists saying California and other areas are overdue for a major earthquake, this study may add fuel to the fire and give residents special reason for concern during the twice-monthly lunar events that produce the highest tides.
These unusually high tides are known as “spring tides,” and during these times, the moon, Earth, and sun are lined up. The gravitational forces created by the alignment of these three celestial bodies adds weight in the form of additional tidal water and may put more pressure on fault lines and create ideal conditions for an earthquake, USA Today reported.
“The probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels,” the study said, according to USA Today.
Statistical analysis done as part of the Tokyo study showed that nine of the 12 most major earthquakes on record happened near or on days with full or new moons, including the 2004 Sumatra quake that killed 230,000 people and the 2011 Japan earthquake in which 15,000 perished. There was no correlation found between high tides and small earthquakes.
Seattle seismologist John Vidale told Nature International Weekly Journal of Science that “the results are plausible.” Vidale has been skeptical and has helped debunk other tide-earthquake studies but says of this one, “They’ve done a very careful job.”
Study authors hope their work could improve earthquake forecasting, especially in places that commonly have high seismic activity. Vidale asserts, however, that accurate predictions are unlikely because of the “miniscule” chances of a deadly earthquake on any given week.
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