Trump Touts Lower Death Toll Predictions

As Americans stay at home, wear masks in public and practice social distancing, models indicate a lower death toll across the country. 

A coronavirus model used by the White House is predicting fewer deaths. President Donald Trump tweeted the news and attributed the shift to the America people “doing a great job” with social distancing and other mitigation efforts.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the number may be closer to 60,000 deaths not 100,000 or even 200,000, which was previously feared. 

The statistics come from a popular model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. 

Individual states are beginning to see the shift. Earlier this week, Florida was expected to experience 239 deaths per day at its peak in mid-April. Now, the IHME projection is closer to 149 deaths per day.

The Los Angeles Times reports that California’s curve shows there will be fewer deaths if stay-at-home measures are extended. The state is beginning to see a slower spread of new infections, which will lead to fewer deaths than predicted. 

The IHME models indicate fewer deaths and an earlier peak date in Illinois. A recent shift shows 1,588 Illinoisans would die from the new coronavirus compared with a previous prediction of 3,386 deaths statewide. The peak date has also shifted from April 20 to this Saturday, the Chicago Tribute reports. 

• Fauci: US Coronavirus Deaths May Be 'More Like 60,000' 
• Pandemic's Peak – Here's the Date for Your State