WashPost: GOP's Pat Roberts Vulnerable to Losing Senate Seat

Sen. Pat Roberts is facing an uphill battle for re-election, with a number of signs suggesting that the Kansas Republican will lose his seat in November, The Washington Post reported.

For a start, the most recent poll by Suffolk University and USA Today puts independent Greg Orman five points ahead of him. Two other polls in September also gave Orman at least a five-point advantage, according to Real Clear Politics.

On top of that, only three other Senate incumbents are polling as much as five points behind their challengers: the highly vulnerable Democratic Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Mark Begich of Alaska.

Roberts' favorability rating, meanwhile, is lower than President Barack Obama's all-time low at 36 percent compared to the president's 41 percent. His approval rating among Republicans is just 50 percent, with 36 percent saying they disapprove.

"The fact that Roberts is in the same ballpark as Obama in ruby-red Kansas is telling," the Post said.

And just 61 percent of Republicans support Roberts compared to 30 percent who say they oppose him.

"If he's going to win, that needs to change — plain and simple. An incumbent, even in a state like Kansas, can't win while ceding that much of his party's vote," the Post said.

The Post added, however, that Roberts' campaign is not a lost cause, citing a number of reasons for hope.

For one, the Post argues, the Republican offensive against Orman has only just begun after Democrat Chad Taylor spectacularly dropped out of the race last month.

The newspaper also noted that it is unlikely that a large percentage of the GOP will swing to Orman, and the two men are also currently drawing almost equal support among independents.

"If that holds and Roberts coalesces GOP support, the path to victory is pretty clear," the Post said.

Meanwhile, Orman's favorability rating is 39 percent, but it will likely plummet after he is targeted by conservative ad campaigns painting him as a liberal.

The Post also noted that over 50 percent of Republicans and independents say they care about which party controls Congress, and it's likely that these voters want to see the GOP in control.

"Rest assured: Over the next few weeks, Republicans will drive home the importance of Roberts to the GOP's Senate majority math," the Post concluded.

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• Court Rules Dems Don't Have to Run Kansas Senate Candidate