OPINION

Iran's recent direct aerial assault on Israeli territory marked a historic escalation in tensions in the region, opening the real prospect of full-bore Mideast inter-state war.

The attack, carried out on April 13, was purportedly in retaliation for Israel's strike on Iran's consulate in Syria.

However, with global condemnation of rights violations in Gaza raging, the timing was opportunistic.

Iran's offensive comprised a formidable arsenal, including 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and over 30 cruise missiles, launched from multiple locations spanning Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Despite a very impressive performance by Israel's Iron Dome system intercepting almost all missiles and drones, the incident served as a sharp reminder of Washington’s status in the region.

This realization should be met with a reinvestment in diplomacy to firm up ties with a variety of imperfect countries, including my own, Turkey.

Here is the problem to address: Iran's strategic calculus involves leveraging proxy groups and militants across the Mideast, predominantly Shia paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, to counterbalance its adversaries' military superiority.

This approach, fueled by Ayatollah Khomeini's vow to eliminate Israel, has made Iran the foremost security concern for the Israeli state.

Consequently, it has hardened Israel's stance towards peace negotiations with neighboring states.

Syria, once a sovereign entity, has evolved into a de facto Iranian satellite.

The Assad regime obediently serves Tehran's interests.

Iran's influence extends through Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, reinforcing its grip over southern Syria and Lebanon.

Exploiting a network of proxies stretching from the Gulf of Aden to Iraq, Iran pursues its regional ambitions, posing a threat to the interests of the U.S., NATO, and Israel.

Central to Iran's strategy is its aspiration to dominate the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage for global oil trade.

Iran's interference extends to the Gulf of Aden, where Iran-backed Houthis perpetuate instability, illustrating Tehran's penchant for spreading conflict through proxies.

The direct attack on Israel was a signal from Iran — they are gambling on the idea that Washington is no longer seen as a legitimate broker in the Mideast.

The gradual fraying of alliances that has taken place since the Afghanistan and Iraq wars has emboldened rogue state actors like Iran

The key question is whether Washington can restore and improve its bilateral relationship with Turkey, the largest contributor of troops to NATO, to have a meaningful impact on the Iran issue.

It's far from straightforward.

Despite its reservations, Turkey acknowledges Iran as a geopolitical reality and a significant neighbor, with whom it shares a longstanding border and there is little appetite for confrontation.

Despite occasional friction, their relationship has endured, marked by periods of cooperation, notably during the Cold War.

However, Turkey remains wary of Iran's ambitions, particularly its efforts to export its revolutionary ideology to neighboring Muslim nations.

Iran's support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah remains a grave concern for Turkey's national security.

Washington should understand that as Turkey is navigating this complex relationship, there’s a focus on economic ties with strategic interests, recognizing Tehran as a key energy supplier and trading partner.

While Turkey aligns with the West on many fronts, its cultural and historical ties with Iran afford it a unique diplomatic advantage.

In the broader geopolitical context, Turkey's alliance with the United States through NATO coexists with its cultural and historical ties to Iran.

Despite occasional tensions, Turkey plays a crucial role in regional stability, hosting NATO installations while engaging in backchannel diplomacy with Iran.

Turkey's mediation efforts during the Iranian nuclear talks underscore its potential as a diplomatic bridge between Iran and the West.

However, suspicions linger, particularly among Israel, regarding Turkey's reliability in regional conflicts.

Given the high stakes of the current crisis in the Mideast, there should be openness, if not optimism, that Washington’s continued engagement with Ankara could contribute positively to easing tensions in the region.

It’s clear that most governments regard Iran's aggressive posture as a major problem for regional stability, even as they denounce the abuses in Gaza.

When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Washington on May 9 of this year, all eyes will be on the body language between he and President Joe Biden; two leaders who have known each other for more than 14 years.

Hopefully, both NATO allies find common ground and articulate strategies to overcome the turmoil in the Mideast as strategic partners rather than solely transactional parties.

Bilal Bilici, is a leading  member of the Turkish Parliament (Adana Province), and also Foreign Affairs Committee Member.