MEXICO CITY (AP) — Hurricane Erick formed Wednesday in the Pacific Ocean on a forecast track to bring heavy rain, strong winds, storm surge and possible mudslides to southern coastal Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Up to 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain could fall across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, with lighter amounts in Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states, the Miami-based center said in an advisory. The rainfall threatened flooding and mudslides, especially in areas with steep terrain.

Erick is expected to be at or near major hurricane status as it approaches the Mexican coast on Thursday. A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher and wind speeds of 111-129 mph (180-210 kph).